Dear Colleagues,
Francis Fukuyama has been writing about drones for more than a decade. In 2012 in the Financial Times, Fukuyama noted how the use of drones was likely to bring changes in warfare similar to those created by the British battleship Dreadnaught that obsoleted earlier classes of battleships.
Writing three years ago for American Purpose, an online magazine and policy network Fukuyama and I started during the pandemic, the Stanford scholar observed that in the 1967 Middle East War only a couple of Egyptian tanks were killed from the air in Israel’s massive opening air strike; it was too difficult to hit so small a target with a plane. Warfare continued to adapt, as precision-guided munitions began to proliferate, but they required costly platforms like the A-10 close-support attack aircraft, which in turn necessitated expensive air defenses.
Enter today the smaller crafts called drones. They operate without human pilots, threaten a range of targets, and are cheap to produce. Why a $2 million missile when a drone starting at $50,000 will do? In our region, drones are radically changing warfare as we speak.
On October 19, Hezbollah conducted a drone attack targeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence in Caesarea, Israel. Leaked images of the prime minister’s residence show damage to a side of a building. Neither Netanyahu nor his wife were at home at the time.
The IDF is scrambling. Even if Israel is gradually improving its counter-drone capabilities, drones currently pose substantial challenges for Israel’s air defenses, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Watch for the next shift in the war.
On October 15, Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem announced that Hezbollah would initiate a new phase in the conflict. It’s possible Hezbollah has decided to target higher-value Israeli officials in response to the recent Israeli operations that have killed Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.
MBN People and Interviews
Last week, we interviewed Eyal Haluta. Having worked for three prime ministers, Eyal served until last year as Israeli national security adviser. He led technology for the Mossad. Eyal holds a Ph.D in physics. He’ll continue to be a resource for us and a high value guest for our audiences.
Read the recent Politico interview with our Ryan Crocker, MBN interim board chair on the political way forward in the Middle East after the recent death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Recall the breadth of Ambassador Crocker’s experience: He served as U.S. Ambassador in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Kuwait, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. We’re fortunate to have him in the chair’s role and as part of the MBN community.
Last week, we also interviewed Iran Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi. I had the pleasure of hosting Shirin in London and Prague when I lived in Europe. She’s the lawyer and writer who in 2003 became the first Muslim woman and first Iranian to win the Nobel Peace Prize.
In Iran, Shirin was known as a fearless legal advocate for dissidents and victims of child abuse. She helped found the Defenders of Human Rights Center in Tehran, a group shutdown by Iranian authorities in 2008. Later that same year, her law offices were raided. In 2009, Ebadi went into exile in the United Kingdom, where she’s remained a tireless champion of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law.
Thanks to our booking team and to Haidar Almehrabi in Springfield for interviewing Eyal Haluta and to Raghda Ibrahim and Bassel Sabri in Dubai for the interview with Shirin Ebadi
U.S. Elections
We’re close now, fifteen days and counting. Kamala Harris has a slim lead over Donald J. Trump in national polling. But as you know, the United States uses an electoral college system. Each state is given a number of votes roughly in line with the size of its population. A total of 538 electoral college votes are theoretically up for grabs, meaning that a candidate needs to 270 votes to claim victory.
Because most of the 50 states nearly always vote for the same party, there are only a handful of places where both candidates stand a proper chance of winning. These battleground or swing states are the places where the election will be won. The race is extremely tight.
In Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (5), and Nevada (6), Harris has a one point lead. In North Carolina (16), Trump leads by one point; in Georgia (16) and Arizona (11), he’s up by two.
In Michigan, Black voters make up roughly thirteen percent of Michigan’s electorate; ninety-two percent supported Biden four years ago. Harris is behind that benchmark. This while Arab Americans make up about four percent of Michigan’s population (the highest share of any state in the country). The Administration’s support for Israel has stirred controversy across Muslim communities in the U.S.
Keep an eye on Congress. The House at this stage is a coin toss with some polls forecasting for the Senate a Republican majority of one or two seats.
For trends and forecasts, I’ve previously recommended Silver Bulletin managed by statistician Nate Silver. Silver’s current shop is the descendent of FiveThirtyEight, another important source, founded by Silver in 2008.
What else am I reading?
Immigration is big on the minds of many American voters. The Brookings Institution has just issued a report on immigration and the macroeconomy after 2024. Here’s AEI’s Daniel Cox and Kelsey Eyre Hammond in an AEI report on how gender gaps are shaping the 2024 elections. Here’s a UCLA study on Gen Zers and the elections.
For Nevertrumpers, I peruse daily Bill Kristol and his colleagues at The Bulwark. For Trumpian perspectives, I receive daily missives from American Greatness. For timely, rich political reporting and comments, Matt Kaminski’s Politico is a must read. This way or that, watch for legal battles and ferocious debates after November 5.
MBN, Next Steps
We’ll speak about all this next week — about America, the world, and our next MBN steps. I’ve pushed our town hall meeting to next Monday October 28. You’ll hear from me, acting editor-in-chief Leila Bazzi, COO Deirdre Kline, and head of people and culture, Billy Sabatini. There’s lots cooking. You’ll get my updates on our search for leads in security and HR and a permanent editor-in-chief. I’ll share with you as well my plans to visit our region twice by the end of this calendar year.
And we’ll stick with our commitment to service in ways big and small. Last week’s potluck was by all accounts fabulous. Thanks to everyone for the marvelous dishes and wonderful camaraderie. Thanks to Faris Almaari, Mary Schaeffer, Leila Bazzi, Deirdre Kline and the other colleagues who made the lunch possible.
We’ll keep brightening things up a bit, including with small building improvements on the way (details next week). Your hard work and dedication are deeply appreciated — my tip of hat each and every day. Whenever we can be supportive, we’re eager and committed to stepping up.
Let me keep hearing from you with ideas, comments, and constructive criticism.. You can always email me at jgedmin@mbn-news.com or click on this form to submit comments and questions anonymously.
Warmest regards, Jeff
