Analyst Tom Gross asserts the Iranian leadership faces a profound crisis of authority. In an interview with MBN, Gross detailed how recent military setbacks exposed the regime’s inability to protect its own elite. A 12-day military operation in June 2025 targeted the core of Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure. Israeli strikes killed the head of the Revolutionary Guard and the head of the army with pinpoint accuracy. Scientists responsible for weaponizing the nuclear program were also eliminated. Gross called these failures a deep humiliation for a nation of Iran’s size.
Internal dissent now threatens the Islamic Republic. Gross stated a majority of Iranians oppose the government. Protesters demand an end to the billions spent on foreign proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah while the domestic economy collapses. The failure to defend high-ranking officials shattered the regime’s image of invincibility. Gross predicted the government would not last much longer. He suggested a future military coup from within the Revolutionary Guard remains a possibility.
While Tehran struggles internally, regional diplomatic structures show unexpected resilience. The Abraham Accords remain resilient despite the regional conflict. Gross dismissed claims that the war in Gaza fractured these diplomatic ties. He cited high flight frequencies and growing trade between Israel and the United Arab Emirates as evidence of stability. Saudi Arabia is waiting for a strategic moment to join the peace process. The kingdom likely seeks specific concessions from Washington before formalizing relations. Regional governments continue to prioritize long-term security over the goals of militant groups.
Gross also addressed the future of Gaza and media manipulation by Hamas. He accused the group of staging images and faking casualty data to pressure Israel. Regarding post-war governance, Gross suggested Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may favor a “Dubai-style” model. This vision involves transforming Gaza into a prosperous trade hub led by local figures who reject jihadist ideology. Gross argued that stability requires a government focused on civilian welfare rather than perpetual conflict with Israel.
